Adaptive models of stable functioning

Fundamental research topic “Adaptive models of sustainable socio-economic systems”(state registration number 0103U000461), year of graduation – 2008.

Through the work on “Adaptive model of sustainable socio-economic systems theoretical framework and carried out the development of methodological and methodical principles of complex adaptive models of sustainable socio-economic systems in non-stationary environment. The main scientific results are: conceptual diagram of the relationship of assessment tools, analysis and forecasting of economic security socio-economic system (SES), which ensures steady operation on the basis of the implementation of the principles of adaptive management; conceptual positions of constructing a system of decision support (DSS), which differ from those available using the General methodology of adaptive control, both in the design of models, and while operating; the financial mechanism for adaptive management of SES, which has three local mechanism, in particular, the mechanism of evaluation and analysis of production and economic system, the mechanism of diagnosing adverse situations and the formation mechanism of compensation of the financial strategy, the scientific novelty consists in improvement of theoretical approaches on the formation mechanism of financial management of SES by identifying the contours of external and internal adaptation, which allows on the basis of a synthesis of the fluctuations of different nature and to develop effective management decisions regarding the management of SES in the context of high level of instability of the environment; a model of formation of system of indicators of economic safety of SES (region, enterprise), which allows to consider complex character of the economic security and underscored the importance of addressing security issues from the point of view of threats; adaptive model of estimation of level of safety of the region on the basis of using the method of adaptive Kalman filtering-Byuse, which allows to obtain the value of the security of the region, characterizing the periods of its development; to determine alternatives of development of the region from the point of view of its economic security, as well as to predict the occurrence of new situations not taken into account economic security of the region.

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